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Risk of Home Price Declines Falls in Many Areas: Report

Metropolitan areas that experienced rapid home price appreciation during the housing boom are at a higher risk of continuing price declines over the next two years than cities that had more modest increases, according to a study by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. The Summer 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index ranks the nation’s 50 largest metro statistical areas based on the likelihood that home prices will be lower in the next couple of years using data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

The risk of falling home prices declined in 35 of the 50 largest MSAs and 326 of all 381 MSAs surveyed. Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario, Calif., had the highest risk of future price declines, followed by Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach, Fla., while Fort Worth-Arlington and Dallas-Plano-Irving, in Texas, and Pittsburgh, Pa., all had the lowest risk at less than 1 percent.

Boston was ranked with 11.8% risk of price decline in the next 2 years!

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